NFL Postseason Scenarios: Crucial Matchups & Outcomes for the Season Finale.
Entering the final week of the regular NFL campaign, only a pair of play-off spots remain open. However, far more is on the line, including the highly desired top seeds in both conferences and several divisional crowns.
The schedule makers have crafted a perfect finale, with the two remaining play-off positions to be decided in a pair of head-to-head matchups.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
American Football Conference Rankings
- Denver (13-3)
- New England (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh (9-7) / Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
- Houston Texans (11-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo (11-5)
The victor of the Steelers-Ravens game will secure the fourth seed and a home game in the wildcard round. Meanwhile, Buffalo and the Chargers are set as wildcard teams.
The Texans need a win and a Jacksonville loss to jump from fifth to third. Denver will earn the #1 ranking with a triumph, but a loss could open the door for New England or Jacksonville to claim it.
NFC Standings
- Seattle (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
- Carolina (8-8) / Tampa Bay (7-9)
- San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
- L.A. Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay Packers (9-6)
The NFC South is up for grabs by the victor of the Carolina-Tampa Bay game, earning them the fourth seed. However, the Panthers could still win the division even with a defeat, depending on other outcomes.
Green Bay are locked into the seventh seed. The marquee matchup, however, is the clash for the NFC's top seed between the Seahawks and the 49ers, with a week off and home playoff games hanging in the balance.
Understanding the NFL Play-Off Format
The top seed in each conference earns a crucial first-round bye and home-field advantage for the duration of the postseason.
On the Wild Card round, the remaining six playoff teams face off: the #2 team hosts the #7 team, third hosts sixth, and fourth hosts fifth.
For the second round, the #1 seeds join the fray, facing the weakest surviving team. The AFC and NFC title games are then hosted by the best remaining team, underscoring the immense importance of securing that #1 ranking.
AFC North Decider: A Brutal Finale
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
This fierce rivalry reaches its climax in the last contest of the NFL season. The divisional title and a play-off berth at stake, this is a true elimination situation.
The Steelers have been inconsistent this season, while Baltimore started poorly but are still in the hunt. Player availability could be decisive: The Steelers may miss key target DK Metcalf, while Baltimore's quarterback their MVP QB is questionable with a back injury.
Running back Derrick Henry could be the x-factor for the Ravens in what is set up as a physical, low-scoring struggle.
NFC West Showdown for the Top Seed
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Not only the NFC West is at stake when Seattle visits the 49ers. The victorious team secures the conference's #1 spot and the road to the championship game that comes with it.
This game pits an high-powered San Francisco attack against a dominant Seahawks defense. With QB Brock Purdy came back, the 49ers have been the league's highest scorers. Conversely, the Seahawks' unit is rated among the best in the league.
The Seahawks' QB Sam Darnold needs to cut down on costly turnovers that have plagued him this season. The team that comes out on top earns a huge advantage for the playoff run.
The NFC South's Uncertain Finish
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30 Saturday)
Neither team enters this game with much momentum. Tampa Bay have lost seven of eight, while Carolina have squandered chances to secure the division.
For Carolina it's simple: a victory gets them in. For Tampa Bay, the scenario is trickier. Even with a win, they require help from the Falcons-Saints matchup to steal the division crown.
AFC's Top Seed Up for Grabs
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00, Sunday)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25, Sunday)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25, Sunday)
Denver hold the cards for the #1 AFC spot. A victory over a L.A. Chargers team expected to sit starters gets it done.
If the Broncos lose, the door opens for the New England Patriots. A Patriots win combined with a Denver defeat would hand the #1 ranking to Bill Belichick's team.
Jacksonville are the long shot. They require a triumph and defeats for the Broncos and Patriots to pull off an improbable ascent to #1. More importantly, a Jacksonville defeat could see them passed by the Houston Texans in the AFC South.
Full Slate of Final Week Games
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
